Ann Arbor 1–2 Kalamazoo FC: Result & Stats

Ann Arbor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kalamazoo FC

6/1/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 6Hollway Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ann Arbor44%

×Draw21%

Kalamazoo FC35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ann ArborExpected goals in this matchKalamazoo FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.83

Ann Arbor

2.09

Kalamazoo FC

1.83

Ann Arbor creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.93

creates per match

2.31

1.36

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ann Arbor

1.93

Kalamazoo FC

2.31

allows per match

Ann Arbor

1.36

Kalamazoo FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Kalamazoo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Kalamazoo FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw

65%

Ann Arbor or Kalamazoo FC

79%

Draw or Kalamazoo FC

56%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

25%

Kalamazoo FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

88%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

62%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

34%

Kalamazoo FC 1+ goals

84%

Kalamazoo FC 2+ goals

54%

Kalamazoo FC 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

56%

Kalamazoo FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Kalamazoo FC away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 1.93 + Kalamazoo FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Kalamazoo FC attack 2.31 + Ann Arbor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ann Arbor scores more

44%

level

21%

Kalamazoo FC scores more

35%

Ann Arbor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ann Arbor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff