Kalaâ Sport 0–1 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Kalaâ Sport

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

5/13/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kalaâ Sport33%

×Draw30%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalaâ SportExpected goals in this matchJeunesse Sportive Omrane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.05

Kalaâ Sport

0.99

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport

1.20

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.17

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport

0.93

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw

64%

Kalaâ Sport or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

70%

Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

67%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

12%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

63%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

26%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

8%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals

65%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals

28%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

48%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more

33%

level

30%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more

36%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff