Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2–3 Kalaâ Sport

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kalaâ Sport

12/25/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 9Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane65%

×Draw21%

Kalaâ Sport14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunesse Sportive OmraneExpected goals in this matchKalaâ Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.76

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.92

Kalaâ Sport

0.76

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 153% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 61 away

2.33

creates per match

0.70

0.83

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

2.33

Kalaâ Sport

0.70

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

0.83

Kalaâ Sport

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

Kalaâ Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw

86%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or Kalaâ Sport

79%

Draw or Kalaâ Sport

35%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+

39%

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals

85%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals

57%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals

30%

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

53%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

18%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)

82%

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more

65%

level

21%

Kalaâ Sport scores more

14%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff