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Kajiado vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
6/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 34Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kajiado43%
×Draw27%
Dimba Patriots29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.34
Dimba Patriots
1.05

Kajiado creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
71%
Kajiado or Dimba Patriots
73%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
57%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
20%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
74%
Kajiado 2+ goals
39%
Kajiado 3+ goals
15%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
65%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
28%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
60%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kajiado scores more
43%
level
27%
Dimba Patriots scores more
29%

Kajiado at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kajiado 3–2 Dimba Patriots

Kajiado beat Dimba Patriots 3-2 in Super League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.