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Dimba Patriots vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kajiado
Kajiado
12/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots61%
×Draw21%
Kajiado18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
2.10
Kajiado
1.06

Dimba Patriots creates 98% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
82%
Dimba Patriots or Kajiado
79%
Draw or Kajiado
39%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
38%
Kajiado wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
88%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
62%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
35%
Kajiado 1+ goals
65%
Kajiado 2+ goals
29%
Kajiado 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
77%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
61%
level
21%
Kajiado scores more
18%

Dimba Patriots at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimba Patriots vs Kajiado

Dimba Patriots beat Kajiado 2-1 in Super League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.