Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Kaizer Chiefs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

5/3/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 22FNB Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs47%

×Draw28%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaizer ChiefsExpected goals in this matchTshakhuma Madzivhadila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.87

Kaizer Chiefs

1.30

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.87

Kaizer Chiefs creates 49% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 76 away

1.16

creates per match

0.72

1.02

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs

1.16

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.72

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs

1.02

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw

75%

Kaizer Chiefs or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

72%

Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

53%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

22%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

73%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

37%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

14%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals

58%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals

22%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

65%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

47%

level

28%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more

25%

Kaizer Chiefs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff