Kaizer Chiefs 0–0 Horoya: Result & Stats

Kaizer Chiefs

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Horoya

2/23/2021

CAF Champions League · Group C - 2First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs57%

×Draw30%

Horoya13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaizer ChiefsExpected goals in this matchHoroya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.42

Kaizer Chiefs

1.24

Horoya

0.42

Kaizer Chiefs creates 195% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

0.88

creates per match

0.47

0.38

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs

0.88

Horoya

0.47

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs

0.38

Horoya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Horoya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw

87%

Kaizer Chiefs or Horoya

70%

Draw or Horoya

43%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

27%

Horoya wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

71%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

35%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

13%

Horoya 1+ goals

34%

Horoya 2+ goals

7%

Horoya 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

82%

Horoya (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 0.88 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Horoya attack 0.47 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

57%

level

30%

Horoya scores more

13%

Kaizer Chiefs at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff