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Horoya vs Kaizer Chiefs — CAF Champions League 2019

Horoya
Horoya
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
4/10/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 6Stade du 28 Septembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Horoya51%
×Draw29%
Kaizer Chiefs20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horoya
1.32
Kaizer Chiefs
0.71

Horoya creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Horoya
1.35
Kaizer Chiefs
0.71

allows per match

Horoya
0.71
Kaizer Chiefs
1.29

finishing

Horoya+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horoya ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Horoya or draw
80%
Horoya or Kaizer Chiefs
71%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
49%

Winning margin

Horoya wins by 2+
24%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Horoya 1+ goals
73%
Horoya 2+ goals
38%
Horoya 3+ goals
15%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
51%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
16%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Horoya (draw refunded)
72%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horoya at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horoya attack 1.35 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kaizer Chiefs attack 0.71 + Horoya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Horoya scores more
51%
level
29%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
20%

Horoya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Horoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Horoya 2–2 Kaizer Chiefs

Horoya and Kaizer Chiefs drew 2-2 in CAF Champions League on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 28 Septembre in Conakry.