Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaizer Chiefs vs Durban City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
Preview
16:00
Durban City
Durban City
1/10/2027Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15FNB Stadium
42%
Kaizer Chiefs
model favours
42%30%27%

Durban City win just 6% against the top half (vs 64% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs42%
×Draw30%
Durban City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.15
Durban City
0.86

Kaizer Chiefs creates 34% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.17
Durban City
0.73

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.00
Durban City
1.13

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Durban City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Durban City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
73%
Kaizer Chiefs or Durban City
70%
Draw or Durban City
58%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
18%
Durban City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
68%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
32%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
11%
Durban City 1+ goals
58%
Durban City 2+ goals
21%
Durban City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
61%
Durban City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 125 matches

Durban City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.17 + Durban City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Durban City attack 0.73 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
42%
level
30%
Durban City scores more
27%

Kaizer Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Durban City outscore their xG (0.9 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Kaizer Chiefs
Balanced
Durban City
Balanced
56%Possession55%
82%Pass accuracy76%
11.9Shots11.1
1.07xGBiggest gap0.52
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kaizer ChiefsDurban City

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chiefs
LLWWD
City
LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaizer Chiefs vs Durban City — Match Preview

Kaizer Chiefs face Durban City on January 10, 2027 in this Premier Soccer League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kaizer Chiefs host Durban City at FNB Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.