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Kaizer Chiefs vs Durban City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Durban City
Durban City
M. Lilepo 69'
3/15/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs42%
×Draw30%
Durban City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.15
Durban City
0.86

Kaizer Chiefs creates 34% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.17
Durban City
0.73

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.00
Durban City
1.13

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Durban City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Durban City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
73%
Kaizer Chiefs or Durban City
70%
Draw or Durban City
58%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
18%
Durban City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
68%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
32%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
11%
Durban City 1+ goals
58%
Durban City 2+ goals
21%
Durban City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
61%
Durban City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 125 matches

Durban City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.17 + Durban City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Durban City attack 0.73 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
42%
level
30%
Durban City scores more
27%

Kaizer Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
M. LilepoKaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs · M
7.9

Match Events

31'
Inacio Miguel Ferreira Santos
36'
Bradley Cross
46'
A. Velebayi← A. Du Preez
61'
S. Maseko← J. Kamatuka
63'
M. Vilakazi← W. Duba
67'
T. Nodada← B. Mokwena
67'
J. Lwamba← T. Mashego
69'
M. Lilepo↳ M. Vilakazi
73'
Siphesihle Ndlovu
75'
H. Domingo← B. Poggenpoel
75'
S. Mahlangu← S. Magawana
77'
T. Mabaso← S. Ndlovu
78'
Mfanafuthi Mkhize
86'
G. Sirino← M. Shabalala
86'
P. Mako← B. Cross

Possession

61%Kaizer

Shots

15Kaizer

Pass accuracy

53%Kaizer

Statistics

KaizerDurban
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots7
4Corners6
11Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots7
3On Target1
7Off Target4
5Blocked2
7Inside Box5
8Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
486Total Passes295
412Accurate Passes219
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls16
3Yellow Cards1
6Offsides4

Match Recap: Kaizer Chiefs vs Durban City

Kaizer Chiefs beat Durban City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 15, 2026.

Goals: M. Lilepo (69').

Kaizer Chiefs controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at First National Bank Stadium in Johannesburg.