Durban City 0–1 Kaizer Chiefs: Result & Stats

Durban City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kaizer Chiefs

F. Silva 88'

10/31/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Moses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Durban City36%

×Draw33%

Kaizer Chiefs30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Durban CityExpected goals in this matchKaizer Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.83

Durban City

0.94

Kaizer Chiefs

0.83

Durban City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

0.93

creates per match

1.07

0.60

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Durban City

0.93

Kaizer Chiefs

1.07

allows per match

Durban City

0.60

Kaizer Chiefs

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durban City+0.00on par

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durban City ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Durban City or draw

70%

Durban City or Kaizer Chiefs

67%

Draw or Kaizer Chiefs

64%

Winning margin

Durban City wins by 2+

13%

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Durban City 1+ goals

61%

Durban City 2+ goals

24%

Durban City 3+ goals

7%

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

56%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

20%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Durban City (draw refunded)

55%

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durban City at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durban City attack 0.93 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Durban City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Durban City scores more

36%

level

33%

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

30%

Durban City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Durban City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

84

Inacio Miguel

Kaizer Chiefs · D

8.0

Match Events

26'

Athini Jodwana

45+1'

Inacio Miguel Ferreira Santos

46'

T. Monyane← D. Solomons

46'

P. Mmodi← M. Vilakazi

59'

Aden McCarthy

61'

H. Domingo← J. Kamatuka

63'

T. Cele← N. Ngcobo

67'

Bradley Cross

68'

G. Sirino← E. Ighodaro

76'

L. Koapeng← B. Mokwena

80'

F. Silva← M. Lilepo

83'

S. Magawana← T. Nodada

84'

K. Maphathe← S. Maseko

88'

F. Silva↳ G. Sirino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DurbanKaizer

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots9

0Corners4

19Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots9

0On Target3

10Off Target4

0Blocked2

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

263Total Passes538

178Accurate Passes458

68%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2