Kaizer Chiefs 5–3 Bloem Celtic: Result & Stats

Kaizer Chiefs

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Bloem Celtic

12/7/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Moses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs43%

×Draw28%

Bloem Celtic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaizer ChiefsExpected goals in this matchBloem Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Kaizer Chiefs

1.31

Bloem Celtic

1.02

Kaizer Chiefs creates 28% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

1.16

creates per match

1.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs

1.16

Bloem Celtic

1.02

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs

1.02

Bloem Celtic

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Bloem Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw

71%

Kaizer Chiefs or Bloem Celtic

72%

Draw or Bloem Celtic

57%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

20%

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

73%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

38%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

14%

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

64%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

27%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

60%

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

43%

level

28%

Bloem Celtic scores more

29%

Kaizer Chiefs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff