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Bloem Celtic vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
4/27/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic39%
×Draw29%
Kaizer Chiefs32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.17
Kaizer Chiefs
1.04

Bloem Celtic creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
68%
Bloem Celtic or Kaizer Chiefs
71%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
61%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
16%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
69%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
33%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
11%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
65%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
28%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
55%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
39%
level
29%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
32%

Bloem Celtic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bloem Celtic 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs

Bloem Celtic beat Kaizer Chiefs 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg)).