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Kaizer Chiefs vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
8/12/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs31%
×Draw30%
Bidvest Wits39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
0.94
Bidvest Wits
1.09

Bidvest Wits creates 16% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
61%
Kaizer Chiefs or Bidvest Wits
70%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
69%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
11%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
61%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
24%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
7%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
66%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
30%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
44%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
31%
level
30%
Bidvest Wits scores more
39%

Bidvest Wits at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaizer Chiefs 1 – 1 Bidvest Wits

Kaizer Chiefs and Bidvest Wits drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Orlando Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.