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Bidvest Wits vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
1/9/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13BidVest Stadium (Johannesburg, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bidvest Wits40%
×Draw29%
Kaizer Chiefs31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidvest Wits
1.19
Kaizer Chiefs
1.02

Bidvest Wits creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bidvest Wits
1.43
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Bidvest Wits
0.97
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidvest Wits ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bidvest Wits or draw
69%
Bidvest Wits or Kaizer Chiefs
71%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
60%

Winning margin

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
17%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
70%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
33%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
12%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
64%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
27%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
56%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidvest Wits at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidvest Wits attack 1.43 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bidvest Wits scores more
40%
level
29%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
31%

Bidvest Wits at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bidvest Wits 0–2 Kaizer Chiefs

Kaizer Chiefs beat Bidvest Wits 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 9, 2019.

The match was played at BidVest Stadium (Johannesburg, GA).