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Kaiserslautern U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Kaiserslautern U19
Kaiserslautern U19
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Karlsruher SC U19
Karlsruher SC U19
10/2/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1940%
×Draw23%
Karlsruher SC U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern U19
1.73
Karlsruher SC U19
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 71 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19
1.75
Karlsruher SC U19
1.70

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19
1.64
Karlsruher SC U19
1.70

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw
63%
Kaiserslautern U19 or Karlsruher SC U19
77%
Draw or Karlsruher SC U19
60%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+
21%
Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals
82%
Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals
52%
Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals
25%
Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals
81%
Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals
50%
Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.70 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.75 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.70 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more
40%
level
23%
Karlsruher SC U19 scores more
37%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 4–3 Karlsruher SC U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Karlsruher SC U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Betzenberg Platz 4 in Kaiserslautern.