Kaiserslautern U19 4–0 Hennef 05 U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Hennef 05 U19

I. Elyazidi 37'

O. Gibs 32'

K. Ramadani 29', 12'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1958%

×Draw19%

Hennef 05 U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchHennef 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.47

Kaiserslautern U19

2.43

Hennef 05 U19

1.47

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

1.31

1.63

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Hennef 05 U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Hennef 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

77%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Hennef 05 U19

81%

Draw or Hennef 05 U19

42%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

37%

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

91%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

69%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

43%

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

77%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

43%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Hennef 05 U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

58%

level

19%

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

23%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

29'

32'

37'

46'

J. Mensah← N. Tamakloe

46'

A. Bouakran← B. Silik

46'

C. Catak← B. Yörük

46'

K. Becher← A. Grimm

58'

L. Tautenhahn← F. Ammann

58'

M. Baser← K. Scheer

58'

M. Seegel← O. Gibs

58'

P. Besch← T. Zeigler

61'

N. Kunz← S. Music

68'

M. Hommes← I. Elyazidi

77'

S. Delkic← A. Rznic

87'

D. Nduchekwe← A. Belousov

Kaiserslautern

Hennef

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gibs

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: E. Baffoun

46'▲J. Mensah←▼N. Tamakloe

58'▲L. Tautenhahn←▼F. Ammann

58'▲M. Baser←▼K. Scheer

58'▲M. Seegel←▼O. Gibs

58'▲P. Besch←▼T. Zeigler

68'▲M. Hommes←▼I. Elyazidi

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

MensahTautenhahnBaserSeegelBeschHommesTauer

Manager: M. Lunga

46'▲A. Bouakran←▼B. Silik

46'▲C. Catak←▼B. Yörük

46'▲K. Becher←▼A. Grimm

61'▲N. Kunz←▼S. Music

77'▲S. Delkic←▼A. Rznic

87'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼A. Belousov

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

BouakranCatakBecherKunzDelkicNduchekweMüller

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 4–0 Hennef 05 U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Hennef 05 U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: K. Ramadani (12', 29'), O. Gibs (32'), I. Elyazidi (37').

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Hennef 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 4–0 Hennef 05 U19