Hennef 05 U19 3–4 Kaiserslautern U19

Hennef 05 U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

Kaiserslautern U19

N. Mofa 29', 4'

A. Rznic 15'

D. Tuttobene 88' (pen)

K. Scheer 85'

I. Elyazidi 38' (pen)

D. Schramm 25'

10/19/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1937%

×Draw22%

Kaiserslautern U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.89

Hennef 05 U19

1.78

Kaiserslautern U19

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 68 away

1.31

creates per match

1.62

2.15

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

59%

Hennef 05 U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

78%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

63%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

19%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

83%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

53%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

26%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

85%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

56%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.78

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

41%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

15'

25'

29'

38'

I. ElyazidiPenalty

46'

A. Ćorić← S. Music

46'

C. Catak← S. Andric

51'

O. Gibs← I. Elyazidi

65'

A. Bouakran← S. Pietrek

68'

D. Tuttobene← E. Müller

68'

N. Tamakloe← M. Yüsün

74'

D. Kovalenko← N. Kunz

85'

A. Grimm← K. Cornelius

85'

S. Delkic← D. Kovalenko

85'

K. Scheer

88'

D. TuttobenePenalty

Hennef

Kaiserslautern

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

46'▲A. Ćorić←▼S. Music

46'▲C. Catak←▼S. Andric

65'▲A. Bouakran←▼S. Pietrek

74'▲D. Kovalenko←▼N. Kunz

85'▲A. Grimm←▼K. Cornelius

85'▲S. Delkic←▼D. Kovalenko

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

ĆorićCatakBouakranKovalenkoGrimmDelkicHellwig

Manager: E. Baffoun

51'▲O. Gibs←▼I. Elyazidi

68'▲D. Tuttobene←▼E. Müller

68'▲N. Tamakloe←▼M. Yüsün

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

GibsTuttobeneTamakloeTauerTautenhahnBaserSeegel

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 3–4 Kaiserslautern U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Hennef 05 U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on October 19, 2024.

Goals: N. Mofa (4', 29'), A. Rznic (15'), D. Schramm (25'), I. Elyazidi (38' pen), K. Scheer (85'), D. Tuttobene (88' pen).

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.

Hennef 05 U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 3–4 Kaiserslautern U19