Kaiserslautern U19 1–4 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Freiburg U19

A. Stavridis 16'

A. Moutassime 90+1'

M. Wörner 87'

D. Au Yeong 28', 11'

2/19/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15Betzenberg Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1940%

×Draw22%

Freiburg U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.69

Kaiserslautern U19

1.77

Freiburg U19

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 67 away

1.86

creates per match

1.76

1.63

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

63%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Freiburg U19

78%

Draw or Freiburg U19

60%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

21%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

83%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

53%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

26%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

50%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Freiburg U19 scores more

37%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Au Yeong

16'

A. Stavridis

28'

D. Au Yeong

46'

J. Aghajanyan← M. Bauer

60'

K. Merk← P. Nicklis

60'

P. Petrica← N. Wettengl

69'

M. Wörner← G. Pellegrino

75'

T. Walker← M. Karas

77'

R. Pfauser← M. Hülsenbusch

82'

T. Birk← B. Yilmaz

84'

A. Echner← T. Mühlethaler

87'

M. Wörner

90+1'

A. Moutassime

Kaiserslautern

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Bugera

46'▲J. Aghajanyan←▼M. Bauer

60'▲K. Merk←▼P. Nicklis

60'▲P. Petrica←▼N. Wettengl

75'▲T. Walker←▼M. Karas

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

AghajanyanMerkPetricaWalkerHoorMiftariSchamber

Manager: F. Valente

69'▲M. Wörner←▼G. Pellegrino

77'▲R. Pfauser←▼M. Hülsenbusch

82'▲T. Birk←▼B. Yilmaz

84'▲A. Echner←▼T. Mühlethaler

Freiburg U19 substitutes

WörnerPfauserBirkEchnerJogerstCapitaoBrüning

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern U19 vs Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 19, 2022.

Goals: D. Au Yeong (11', 28'), A. Stavridis (16'), M. Wörner (87'), A. Moutassime (90+1').

The match was played at Betzenberg Platz 4 in Kaiserslautern.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern U19 vs Freiburg U19