Freiburg U19 4–0 Kaiserslautern U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kaiserslautern U19

L. Hermes 83', 60'

L. Tost 57'

K. Schade 56'

3/30/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Freiburg U1954%

×Draw20%

Kaiserslautern U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.60

Freiburg U19

2.35

Kaiserslautern U19

1.60

Freiburg U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

2.44

creates per match

1.62

1.59

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

74%

Freiburg U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

80%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

46%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

68%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

41%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

80%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

47%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.35

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

54%

level

20%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

26%

Freiburg U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

L. Tost← Y. Keitel

56'

A. Bakhat← T. Mäntynen

56'

57'

58'

60'

62'

C. Barlık← P. Bonianga

63'

S. Risch← K. Ezekwem

65'

M. Neukirch← L. Hotopp

79'

F. Reisinger← D. Blum

80'

A. Tran← M. Di Giusto

83'

L. Hermes

Freiburg

Kaiserslautern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Schade

Manager: T. Stamm

48'▲L. Tost←▼Y. Keitel

58'▲M. Bauer←▼K. Schade

63'▲S. Risch←▼K. Ezekwem

80'▲A. Tran←▼M. Di Giusto

Freiburg U19 substitutes

TostBauerRischTranKeckeisenGüntherHeinzelmann

Manager: M. Laping

56'▲A. Bakhat←▼T. Mäntynen

62'▲C. Barlık←▼P. Bonianga

65'▲M. Neukirch←▼L. Hotopp

79'▲F. Reisinger←▼D. Blum

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

BakhatBarlıkNeukirchReisingerWohlgemuthMüselFladung