Kaiserslautern U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen U19

M. Yüsün 12'

N. Gernhardt 90+3'

K. Raterink 83'

K. Alajbegović 54'

11/1/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1932%

×Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.92

Kaiserslautern U19

1.58

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.92

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 64 away

1.86

creates per match

2.20

1.63

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

54%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

78%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

68%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

15%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

79%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

47%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

21%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

85%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

57%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

46%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Yüsün

46'

J. Schlich← M. Schrief

54'

K. Alajbegović

59'

N. Tamakloe← E. Müller

76'

M. Szép← E. Owen

83'

K. Raterink

85'

N. Gernhardt← M. Culbreath

85'

S. Đedović← K. Alajbegović

88'

J. Mensah← M. Baser

88'

M. Seegel← O. Gibs

88'

R. Cenușă← D. Tuttobene

90+3'

N. Gernhardt

Kaiserslautern

Bayer

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: E. Baffoun

59'▲N. Tamakloe←▼E. Müller

88'▲J. Mensah←▼M. Baser

88'▲M. Seegel←▼O. Gibs

88'▲R. Cenușă←▼D. Tuttobene

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

TamakloeMensahSeegelCenușăTauerBeschDoruk

Manager: Sergi Runge

46'▲J. Schlich←▼M. Schrief

76'▲M. Szép←▼E. Owen

85'▲N. Gernhardt←▼M. Culbreath

85'▲S. Đedović←▼K. Alajbegović

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

SchlichSzépGernhardtĐedovićEichiePetakFernandes

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 1, 2024.

Goals: M. Yüsün (12'), K. Alajbegović (54'), K. Raterink (83'), N. Gernhardt (90+3').

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19