Bayer Leverkusen U19 4–3 Kaiserslautern U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Kaiserslautern U19

A. Stepanov 90'

R. Petak 75', 71'

K. Raterink 19'

M. Baser 44'

K. Ramadani 30'

T. Zeigler 10'

8/18/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1959%

×Draw19%

Kaiserslautern U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.44

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.46

Kaiserslautern U19

1.44

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

2.65

creates per match

1.62

1.26

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

78%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

81%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

41%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

38%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

91%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

70%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

44%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

76%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

42%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.46

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

22%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

10'

19'

30'

44'

46'

46'

58'

M. Yüsün← K. Ramadani

64'

K. Izekor← K. Alajbegović

64'

R. Petak← N. Mensah

67'

N. Tamakloe← E. Müller

67'

P. Besch← M. Baser

71'

R. Petak

75'

R. Petak

88'

L. Tautenhahn← M. Bochan

88'

M. Hommes← K. Scheer

88'

O. Gibs← D. Tuttobene

90+3'

T. Fernandes← A. Kister

90'

A. Stepanov

Bayer

Kaiserslautern

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergi Runge

6'▲I. Eichie←▼A. Natali

46'▲A. Kister←▼F. Buono

46'▲A. Stepanov←▼M. Szép

64'▲K. Izekor←▼K. Alajbegović

64'▲R. Petak←▼N. Mensah

90+3'▲T. Fernandes←▼A. Kister

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

EichieKisterStepanovIzekorPetakFernandesPetrenko

Manager: E. Baffoun

58'▲M. Yüsün←▼K. Ramadani

67'▲N. Tamakloe←▼E. Müller

67'▲P. Besch←▼M. Baser

88'▲L. Tautenhahn←▼M. Bochan

88'▲M. Hommes←▼K. Scheer

88'▲O. Gibs←▼D. Tuttobene

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

YüsünTamakloeBeschTautenhahnHommesGibsKamga

U19 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen U19 4–3 Kaiserslautern U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on August 18, 2024.

Goals: T. Zeigler (10'), K. Raterink (19'), K. Ramadani (30'), M. Baser (44'), R. Petak (71', 75'), A. Stepanov (90').

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen U19 4–3 Kaiserslautern U19