Kaiserslautern U19 2–0 Alemannia Aachen U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alemannia Aachen U19

K. Scheer 90+3'

D. Tuttobene 10'

12/1/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1955%

×Draw21%

Alemannia Aachen U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.43

Kaiserslautern U19

2.19

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.43

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 60 away

1.86

creates per match

1.23

1.63

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.23

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

75%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

79%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

45%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

33%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

89%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

64%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

37%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

76%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

42%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.19

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.23 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

25%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Tuttobene

61'

E. Müller← K. Ramadani

61'

M. Baser← O. Gibs

61'

D. Franzen← L. Rashica

61'

M. Fork← T. Kpegouni

78'

M. Stadel← D. Tuttobene

78'

F. Türkmen← L. Braun

78'

J. Pollmann← A. Eglenovic

78'

Y. Selim← Arian Amyn

90+4'

M. Seegel← K. Scheer

90+4'

P. Besch← M. Bochan

90+4'

R. Cenușă← N. Tamakloe

90+3'

K. Scheer

Kaiserslautern

Alemannia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Scheer

▼

Bochan

▼

Tamakloe

⚽

▼

Tuttobene

▼

Ramadani

Manager: E. Baffoun

61'▲E. Müller←▼K. Ramadani

61'▲M. Baser←▼O. Gibs

78'▲M. Stadel←▼D. Tuttobene

90+4'▲M. Seegel←▼K. Scheer

90+4'▲P. Besch←▼M. Bochan

90+4'▲R. Cenușă←▼N. Tamakloe

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

MüllerBaserStadelSeegelBeschCenușăJung

Manager: C. Wissing

61'▲D. Franzen←▼L. Rashica

61'▲M. Fork←▼T. Kpegouni

78'▲F. Türkmen←▼L. Braun

78'▲J. Pollmann←▼A. Eglenovic

78'▲Y. Selim←▼Arian Amyn

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

FranzenForkTürkmenPollmannSelimLuabeyaSchmidt

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 2–0 Alemannia Aachen U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Tuttobene (10'), K. Scheer (90+3').

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.

Kaiserslautern U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kaiserslautern U19 2–0 Alemannia Aachen U19