Alemannia Aachen U19 0–1 Kaiserslautern U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kaiserslautern U19

M. Yüsün 86'

9/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 6Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1937%

×Draw22%

Kaiserslautern U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.80

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.69

Kaiserslautern U19

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 68 away

1.12

creates per match

1.62

1.98

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

59%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

78%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

63%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

18%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

82%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

50%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

24%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

83%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

54%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

41%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Mensah← E. Müller

52'

57'

M. Yüsün← D. Tuttobene

57'

O. Gibs← M. Baser

73'

S. Hobert← D. Franzen

81'

A. Eglenovic← M. Pobric

81'

J. Luabeya← Arian Amyn

86'

M. Yüsün

87'

F. Brück-Thies← T. Kpegouni

88'

L. Tautenhahn← K. Scheer

90+1'

N. Tamakloe← M. Yüsün

Alemannia

Kaiserslautern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Wissing

73'▲S. Hobert←▼D. Franzen

81'▲A. Eglenovic←▼M. Pobric

81'▲J. Luabeya←▼Arian Amyn

87'▲F. Brück-Thies←▼T. Kpegouni

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

HobertEglenovicLuabeyaBrück-ThiesSchmidtEdunChekrouni

Manager: E. Baffoun

46'▲J. Mensah←▼E. Müller

57'▲M. Yüsün←▼D. Tuttobene

57'▲O. Gibs←▼M. Baser

88'▲L. Tautenhahn←▼K. Scheer

90+1'▲N. Tamakloe←▼M. Yüsün

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

MensahYüsünGibsTautenhahnTamakloeSeegelJung

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 0–1 Kaiserslautern U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 14, 2024.

Goals: M. Yüsün (86').

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Aachen in Aachen.

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 0–1 Kaiserslautern U19