Kaiserslautern II 1–2 Mechtersheim: Result & Stats

Kaiserslautern II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Mechtersheim

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kaiserslautern II39%

×Draw24%

Mechtersheim37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern IIExpected goals in this matchMechtersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.54

Kaiserslautern II

1.58

Mechtersheim

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.75

1.33

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II

0.67

Mechtersheim

1.75

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II

1.33

Mechtersheim

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Mechtersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw

63%

Kaiserslautern II or Mechtersheim

76%

Draw or Mechtersheim

61%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

19%

Mechtersheim wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

79%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

47%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

21%

Mechtersheim 1+ goals

79%

Mechtersheim 2+ goals

45%

Mechtersheim 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

51%

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 0.67 + Mechtersheim defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mechtersheim attack 1.75 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more

39%

level

24%

Mechtersheim scores more

37%

Kaiserslautern II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff