Kaiserslautern II 5–0 Mechtersheim: Result & Stats

Kaiserslautern II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mechtersheim

9/7/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 6Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Kaiserslautern II59%

×Draw20%

Mechtersheim21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern IIExpected goals in this matchMechtersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.30

Kaiserslautern II

2.28

Mechtersheim

1.30

Kaiserslautern II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

2.64

creates per match

1.39

1.21

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II

2.64

Mechtersheim

1.39

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II

1.21

Mechtersheim

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Mechtersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw

79%

Kaiserslautern II or Mechtersheim

80%

Draw or Mechtersheim

41%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

37%

Mechtersheim wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

90%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

66%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

39%

Mechtersheim 1+ goals

73%

Mechtersheim 2+ goals

37%

Mechtersheim 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

74%

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Mechtersheim defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.28

Mechtersheim attack 1.39 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more

59%

level

20%

Mechtersheim scores more

21%

Kaiserslautern II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff