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Kaiserslautern II vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
12/6/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Sportpark Rote Teufel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Kaiserslautern II51%
×Draw21%
FV Engers 0728%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.17
FV Engers 07
1.58

Kaiserslautern II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
72%
Kaiserslautern II or FV Engers 07
79%
Draw or FV Engers 07
49%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
30%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
89%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
64%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
36%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
79%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
47%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
64%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
51%
level
21%
FV Engers 07 scores more
28%

Kaiserslautern II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern II vs FV Engers 07

FV Engers 07 beat Kaiserslautern II 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel in Mehlingen.