FV Engers 07 2–5 Kaiserslautern II: Result & Stats

FV Engers 07

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Kaiserslautern II

8/17/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

FV Engers 0735%

×Draw21%

Kaiserslautern II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FV Engers 07Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.00

FV Engers 07

1.77

Kaiserslautern II

2.00

Kaiserslautern II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

1.92

creates per match

2.51

1.49

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

FV Engers 07

1.92

Kaiserslautern II

2.51

allows per match

FV Engers 07

1.49

Kaiserslautern II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Kaiserslautern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw

56%

FV Engers 07 or Kaiserslautern II

79%

Draw or Kaiserslautern II

65%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

18%

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

83%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

53%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

26%

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

86%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

59%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

44%

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more

35%

level

21%

Kaiserslautern II scores more

44%

Kaiserslautern II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff