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Kaiserslautern II vs Emmelshausen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
4 – 1
Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
9/20/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kaiserslautern II67%
×Draw18%
Emmelshausen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.32
Emmelshausen
0.97

Kaiserslautern II creates 139% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
Emmelshausen
0.73

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
Emmelshausen
2.00

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Emmelshausen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Emmelshausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
86%
Kaiserslautern II or Emmelshausen
82%
Draw or Emmelshausen
33%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
44%
Emmelshausen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
90%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
67%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
40%
Emmelshausen 1+ goals
62%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
25%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
82%
Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Emmelshausen away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Emmelshausen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Emmelshausen attack 0.73 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
67%
level
18%
Emmelshausen scores more
14%

Kaiserslautern II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Kaiserslautern II 4–1 Emmelshausen

Kaiserslautern II beat Emmelshausen 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.