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Emmelshausen vs Kaiserslautern II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
CANC
16:30
Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
12/5/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15Emmelshausen Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emmelshausen20%
×Draw19%
Kaiserslautern II61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmelshausen
1.27
Kaiserslautern II
2.35

Kaiserslautern II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Emmelshausen
0.93
Kaiserslautern II
2.51

allows per match

Emmelshausen
2.20
Kaiserslautern II
1.61

finishing

Emmelshausen+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmelshausen ↓

Kaiserslautern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Emmelshausen or draw
39%
Emmelshausen or Kaiserslautern II
81%
Draw or Kaiserslautern II
80%

Winning margin

Emmelshausen wins by 2+
8%
Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Emmelshausen 1+ goals
72%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
36%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
14%
Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
90%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
68%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
24%
Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmelshausen at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmelshausen attack 0.93 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Emmelshausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Emmelshausen scores more
20%
level
19%
Kaiserslautern II scores more
61%

Kaiserslautern II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Emmelshausen face Kaiserslautern II (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Emmelshausen hosting Kaiserslautern II. Match starts December 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Emmelshausen host Kaiserslautern II at Emmelshausen Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.