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Kaiserslautern II vs Elversberg II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elversberg II
Elversberg II
10/15/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kaiserslautern II67%
×Draw17%
Elversberg II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.57
Elversberg II
1.15

Kaiserslautern II creates 123% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
Elversberg II
1.08

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
Elversberg II
2.50

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Elversberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
85%
Kaiserslautern II or Elversberg II
83%
Draw or Elversberg II
33%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
46%
Elversberg II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
92%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
72%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
47%
Elversberg II 1+ goals
68%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
32%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
82%
Elversberg II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Elversberg II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.57

Elversberg II attack 1.08 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
67%
level
17%
Elversberg II scores more
15%

Kaiserslautern II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaiserslautern II vs Elversberg II

Kaiserslautern II beat Elversberg II 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.