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Elversberg II vs Kaiserslautern II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
7/31/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Friedrichsthal Rasen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Elversberg II23%
×Draw19%
Kaiserslautern II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.47
Kaiserslautern II
2.43

Kaiserslautern II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 79 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.32
Kaiserslautern II
2.51

allows per match

Elversberg II
2.36
Kaiserslautern II
1.61

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Kaiserslautern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
42%
Elversberg II or Kaiserslautern II
81%
Draw or Kaiserslautern II
77%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
10%
Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
77%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
43%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
18%
Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
91%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
69%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
28%
Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Elversberg II scores more
23%
level
19%
Kaiserslautern II scores more
58%

Kaiserslautern II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elversberg II vs Kaiserslautern II

Elversberg II and Kaiserslautern II drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Friedrichsthal Rasen 2 in Friedrichsthal.