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Kaiserslautern II vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
CANC
14:30
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
11/14/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kaiserslautern II63%
×Draw19%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.39
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.22

Kaiserslautern II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
82%
Kaiserslautern II or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
81%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
37%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
41%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
91%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
69%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
42%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
70%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
34%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
77%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.39

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
63%
level
19%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
18%

Kaiserslautern II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaiserslautern II face Alemannia Waldalgesheim (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Kaiserslautern II hosting Alemannia Waldalgesheim. Match starts November 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kaiserslautern II host Alemannia Waldalgesheim at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.