Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1–0 Kaiserslautern II

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

FT

1 – 0

Kaiserslautern II

9/22/2021

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 8Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim33%

×Draw22%

Kaiserslautern II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia WaldalgesheimExpected goals in this matchKaiserslautern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.89

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.60

Kaiserslautern II

1.89

Kaiserslautern II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

1.58

creates per match

2.51

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.58

Kaiserslautern II

2.51

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.27

Kaiserslautern II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Kaiserslautern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw

55%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Kaiserslautern II

78%

Draw or Kaiserslautern II

67%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

16%

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

80%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

47%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

22%

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

85%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

56%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

42%

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

33%

level

22%

Kaiserslautern II scores more

45%

Kaiserslautern II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff