Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kairat U19 vs APOEL U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Kairat U19
Kairat U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
APOEL U19
APOEL U19
10/20/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group StageOrtalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kairat U1955%
×Draw25%
APOEL U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat U19
1.60
APOEL U19
0.86

Kairat U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kairat U19
1.20
APOEL U19
0.33

allows per match

Kairat U19
1.40
APOEL U19
2.00

finishing

Kairat U19+0.00on par
APOEL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat U19 ↓

APOEL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kairat U19 or draw
80%
Kairat U19 or APOEL U19
75%
Draw or APOEL U19
45%

Winning margin

Kairat U19 wins by 2+
29%
APOEL U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kairat U19 1+ goals
80%
Kairat U19 2+ goals
47%
Kairat U19 3+ goals
22%
APOEL U19 1+ goals
58%
APOEL U19 2+ goals
21%
APOEL U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kairat U19 (draw refunded)
73%
APOEL U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

APOEL U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat U19 attack 1.20 + APOEL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

APOEL U19 attack 0.33 + Kairat U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kairat U19 scores more
55%
level
25%
APOEL U19 scores more
20%

Kairat U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kairat U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat U19 vs APOEL U19

Kairat U19 beat APOEL U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Almaty.