APOEL U19 1–1 Kairat U19: Result & Stats

APOEL U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kairat U19

9/29/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group StageAEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

APOEL U1935%

×Draw23%

Kairat U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APOEL U19Expected goals in this matchKairat U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.70

APOEL U19

1.53

Kairat U19

1.70

Kairat U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.40

2.00

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

APOEL U19

0.67

Kairat U19

1.40

allows per match

APOEL U19

2.00

Kairat U19

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APOEL U19+0.00on par

Kairat U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APOEL U19 ↓

Kairat U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

APOEL U19 or draw

58%

APOEL U19 or Kairat U19

77%

Draw or Kairat U19

65%

Winning margin

APOEL U19 wins by 2+

17%

Kairat U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

APOEL U19 1+ goals

78%

APOEL U19 2+ goals

45%

APOEL U19 3+ goals

20%

Kairat U19 1+ goals

82%

Kairat U19 2+ goals

51%

Kairat U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

APOEL U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Kairat U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APOEL U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kairat U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APOEL U19 attack 0.67 + Kairat U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kairat U19 attack 1.40 + APOEL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

APOEL U19 scores more

35%

level

23%

Kairat U19 scores more

42%

Kairat U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kairat U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff