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Kairat Moskva vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
10/19/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva40%
×Draw23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
1.66
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
1.88
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
1.69
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
63%
Kairat Moskva or Dinamo St. Petersburg
77%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
60%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
81%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
49%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
52%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
40%
level
23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
37%

Kairat Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Moskva vs Dinamo St. Petersburg

Kairat Moskva and Dinamo St. Petersburg drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 19, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo in Odintsovo.