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Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
8/29/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Malaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg42%
×Draw28%
Kairat Moskva30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.28
Kairat Moskva
1.04

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.36
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.07
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw
70%
Dinamo St. Petersburg or Kairat Moskva
72%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
19%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
14%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
65%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
28%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
58%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
42%
level
28%
Kairat Moskva scores more
30%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Kairat Moskva

Dinamo St. Petersburg beat Kairat Moskva 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in St. Petersburg.