Kairat Moskva 3–1 Chita: Result & Stats

Kairat Moskva

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Chita

11/4/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva58%

×Draw21%

Chita21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat MoskvaExpected goals in this matchChita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.19

Kairat Moskva

2.10

Chita

1.19

Kairat Moskva creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

1.88

creates per match

0.70

1.69

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Kairat Moskva

1.88

Chita

0.70

allows per match

Kairat Moskva

1.69

Chita

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Chita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw

79%

Kairat Moskva or Chita

79%

Draw or Chita

42%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+

35%

Chita wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals

88%

Kairat Moskva 2+ goals

62%

Kairat Moskva 3+ goals

35%

Chita 1+ goals

70%

Chita 2+ goals

33%

Chita 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)

73%

Chita (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Chita attack 0.70 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more

58%

level

21%

Chita scores more

21%

Kairat Moskva at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff