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Chita vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
9/14/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chita37%
×Draw28%
Kairat Moskva35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.21
Kairat Moskva
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chita or draw
65%
Chita or Kairat Moskva
72%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
63%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
16%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
70%
Chita 2+ goals
34%
Chita 3+ goals
12%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
69%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
32%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
52%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chita scores more
37%
level
28%
Kairat Moskva scores more
35%

Chita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chita vs Kairat Moskva

Chita and Kairat Moskva drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Chita.