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Kairat Moskva vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
9/30/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva42%
×Draw24%
Baltika BFU34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
1.65
Baltika BFU
1.47

Kairat Moskva creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
1.88
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
1.69
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
66%
Kairat Moskva or Baltika BFU
76%
Draw or Baltika BFU
58%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
21%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
81%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
49%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
23%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
77%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
43%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
55%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
42%
level
24%
Baltika BFU scores more
34%

Kairat Moskva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Moskva vs Baltika BFU

Baltika BFU beat Kairat Moskva 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo in Odintsovo.