Baltika BFU 2–1 Kairat Moskva: Result & Stats

Baltika BFU

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kairat Moskva

8/1/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baltika BFU39%

×Draw28%

Kairat Moskva32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baltika BFUExpected goals in this matchKairat Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.06

Baltika BFU

1.21

Kairat Moskva

1.06

Baltika BFU creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Baltika BFU

1.22

Kairat Moskva

1.00

allows per match

Baltika BFU

1.11

Kairat Moskva

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Kairat Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw

68%

Baltika BFU or Kairat Moskva

72%

Draw or Kairat Moskva

61%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

17%

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

70%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

34%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

12%

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals

65%

Kairat Moskva 2+ goals

29%

Kairat Moskva 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

55%

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baltika BFU scores more

39%

level

28%

Kairat Moskva scores more

32%

Baltika BFU at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff