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Kairat Almaty vs Shakhter Karagandy — Cup 2019

Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
11/28/2021CupCup · FinalAstana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kairat Almaty52%
×Draw23%
Shakhter Karagandy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Almaty
1.83
Shakhter Karagandy
1.21

Kairat Almaty creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kairat Almaty
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.42

allows per match

Kairat Almaty
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.67

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par
Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw
75%
Kairat Almaty or Shakhter Karagandy
77%
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy
48%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
29%
Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
84%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
54%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
28%
Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
70%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
34%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
67%
Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.00 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.42 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more
52%
level
23%
Shakhter Karagandy scores more
25%

Kairat Almaty at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Almaty vs Shakhter Karagandy

Kairat Almaty and Shakhter Karagandy drew 2-2 in Cup on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Nur-Sultan.