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Kagoshima United vs Iwaki — J2 League 2018

Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Iwaki
Iwaki
9/7/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 30Shiranami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United34%
×Draw27%
Iwaki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagoshima United
1.21
Iwaki
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 59 away

creates per match

Kagoshima United
1.18
Iwaki
1.32

allows per match

Kagoshima United
1.30
Iwaki
1.25

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par
Iwaki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Iwaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw
61%
Kagoshima United or Iwaki
73%
Draw or Iwaki
66%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+
14%
Iwaki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals
70%
Kagoshima United 2+ goals
34%
Kagoshima United 3+ goals
12%
Iwaki 1+ goals
73%
Iwaki 2+ goals
38%
Iwaki 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)
47%
Iwaki (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Iwaki away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Iwaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Iwaki attack 1.32 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kagoshima United scores more
34%
level
27%
Iwaki scores more
39%

Iwaki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iwaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagoshima United vs Iwaki

Iwaki beat Kagoshima United 3-1 in J2 League on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Shiranami Stadium in Kagoshima.