Iwaki 3–1 Kagoshima United: Result & Stats

Iwaki

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kagoshima United

3/9/2024

J2 League · Round 3Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Iwaki49%

×Draw25%

Kagoshima United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IwakiExpected goals in this matchKagoshima United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

Iwaki

1.60

Kagoshima United

1.11

Iwaki creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 42 away

1.27

creates per match

0.86

1.36

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Iwaki

1.27

Kagoshima United

0.86

allows per match

Iwaki

1.36

Kagoshima United

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iwaki+0.00on par

Kagoshima United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iwaki ↓

Kagoshima United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Iwaki or draw

74%

Iwaki or Kagoshima United

75%

Draw or Kagoshima United

51%

Winning margin

Iwaki wins by 2+

25%

Kagoshima United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Iwaki 1+ goals

80%

Iwaki 2+ goals

47%

Iwaki 3+ goals

22%

Kagoshima United 1+ goals

67%

Kagoshima United 2+ goals

30%

Kagoshima United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw refunded)

65%

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iwaki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Kagoshima United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iwaki attack 1.27 + Kagoshima United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kagoshima United attack 0.86 + Iwaki defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Iwaki scores more

49%

level

25%

Kagoshima United scores more

26%

Iwaki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Iwaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff