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Kagera Sugar vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
9/16/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 4Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Kagera Sugar39%
×Draw30%
JKT Tanzania30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.11
JKT Tanzania
0.94

Kagera Sugar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
JKT Tanzania
0.95

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
JKT Tanzania
1.26

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
70%
Kagera Sugar or JKT Tanzania
70%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
61%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
16%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
10%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
61%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
24%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
56%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
39%
level
30%
JKT Tanzania scores more
30%

Kagera Sugar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagera Sugar vs JKT Tanzania

Kagera Sugar and JKT Tanzania drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.