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JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
2/21/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 21Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

JKT Tanzania43%
×Draw32%
Kagera Sugar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.09
Kagera Sugar
0.78

JKT Tanzania creates 40% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 96 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.88
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.81
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
74%
JKT Tanzania or Kagera Sugar
68%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
57%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
17%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
66%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
30%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
10%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
54%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
18%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
62%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.81 · 81 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.88 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
43%
level
32%
Kagera Sugar scores more
26%

JKT Tanzania at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar

JKT Tanzania beat Kagera Sugar 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Isamuhyo Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.