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Kagera Sugar vs Ihefu — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ihefu
Ihefu
2/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 17Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kagera Sugar48%
×Draw30%
Ihefu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.22
Ihefu
0.74

Kagera Sugar creates 65% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
Ihefu
0.57

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
Ihefu
1.47

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Ihefu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
78%
Kagera Sugar or Ihefu
70%
Draw or Ihefu
52%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
21%
Ihefu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
34%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Ihefu 1+ goals
52%
Ihefu 2+ goals
17%
Ihefu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
68%
Ihefu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
48%
level
30%
Ihefu scores more
22%

Kagera Sugar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Kagera Sugar 2–1 Ihefu

Kagera Sugar beat Ihefu 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.