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Ihefu vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Ihefu
Ihefu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
6/9/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Highland Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ihefu47%
×Draw29%
Kagera Sugar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihefu
1.24
Kagera Sugar
0.80

Ihefu creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 96 away

creates per match

Ihefu
1.17
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Ihefu
0.85
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw
76%
Ihefu or Kagera Sugar
71%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
53%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+
21%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals
71%
Ihefu 2+ goals
35%
Ihefu 3+ goals
13%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
55%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
19%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)
66%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ihefu scores more
47%
level
29%
Kagera Sugar scores more
24%

Ihefu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Ihefu 2–0 Kagera Sugar

Ihefu beat Kagera Sugar 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Highland Estate Stadium in Ubaruku.