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Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
9/17/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 3Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kagera Sugar43%
×Draw30%
Geita Gold27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.19
Geita Gold
0.87

Kagera Sugar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
73%
Kagera Sugar or Geita Gold
70%
Draw or Geita Gold
57%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
19%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
58%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
22%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
62%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
43%
level
30%
Geita Gold scores more
27%

Kagera Sugar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold

Kagera Sugar beat Geita Gold 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.